The Future, Can I predict it

It is what it is - The Future, but I might be able to predicts some of it

After reading Erika Parn’s new book, “ Twin Systems: Digital Twins of the Built Environment” I took a long hand look at the last chapter in my book “The Future” and I though I needed to add more to this chapter.

I had heard that Erika was writing this book along with others at the University of Cambridge, and pre ordered it via Amazon as a Kindle book. I was not disappointed, I have long been interested in Digital Twin projects, but Erikas has taken its further and asked a lot of questions on Planning the Digital Twin, and introducing the concepts of the vast amount of Data that will be involved from not just sensors but everything, in and around the primary building, Giving it a new name of Twin Systems.

This is not new, take the aero industry for example, and of late, look at Tesla and other car manufacturers , its just Erika has asked the question why is it that our industry is not keeping up and applying it to the construction Industry.

The answer as Erika admits to, some parts of the industry are working around the many problems and coming up with vast projects to test out ideas and concepts. Don’t forget our products last for hundreds of years, but like cars or planes that at best have a life span of say 50 years at best.

Erika is well aware of the problems and offers insites into many of the answers, but more, she asks the right questions.

The epub book is well worth the £18.99

Take a look at the Twin Systems YouTube channel there is a lot to take in, and I can guarantee a lot of note taking.

So here are my first thoughts, it might change as I rethink this through, in fact I know it will need updating as I re read the book and make more retailed notes. I have already marked of many points in Kindles text system, but I fear, it will increase as I re read the book and start to follow up on the many, many links thoughout the book and the excellent bibliography.

In fact this fits very nicely with my chapter on the Future, and the topic I was putting together for todays release on note taking and developing ideas.

I actually gave a presentation on the concept of BIM, Data and the Digital Twin some years back to a group of timber merchants, and later to some of my students, so I dragged out my notes to compare with Erika’s book.

It’s obvious,,,,,, I need to update my presentation!

But first Mitchells and my Chapter on the Future

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I do not know if I will be alive in three days time, I might know it will rain, but that piece of information I take as a possible, some information is subject to rules that I do not completely understand, the weather being one of them.

But so often in my career, I have been asked, whats the next product we need to design, make and sell. The company wants me to predicts the next big money earner. That is one question I need to sit and think about.

Some, when asked the same question, will go on instinct, that gut feeling and they might be right, but its a rare event, most products I have been involved with have evolved from something completely different to the company line or product portfolio.

Can I teach this, the answer, I think, is yes, watching the market place is the first step, so often I have put in a report, and my boss has come back and said, follow up, or is this possible, meaning “I have no idea what your talking about, but follow it up”.

I teach one simple rule set when I present my future lecture, watch, read, listen, think. No idea is crazy, out of bounds, or ridiculess, list every single thought.

I still do it today, I am as my partner keeps telling me, retired, but 55 years of following the same rules is a habit that I do sub-continuously I have a list of things I think might prove interesting,

I read, no, as I have often stated here, I read a lot, old books news books, news articles, old archive sites like Project Gutenburg, are a great place to find old interesting books, I recently went on a river cruise and down loaded several free ePub books. But do I see the future in them, often yes, history has a nasty habit of repeating its self.

The news, no matter how bad it looks always has some interest. No matter how bad I think the Russian invasion of the Ukraine is, I look at the devastation and wonder how this might play out. What ever happens there is going to be a massive rebuild, and a chance to design new buildings and inferstructure. I can only guess but some of the major global Architect practices and contractors are already looking at a rebuild possibility, no matter how grim it might seem.

So back to my list, its alway under review, each idea or concept is accompanied by notes, why, how, who, costs, materials, competition, I write it all down often I link ideas together, some times I merge several together, Canvas in Obsidian, or freform and Notes in Apple is great for looking at this.

So often I take the local train into Birmingham to attend BCU, the train in is a chance to sit and watch the world go by. stations are particularly interesting, some are just a platform, but others are so much more, cafe’s not one but several, flower sellers, coffee vendors, I look at the small stalls and start to plan out how it might work, an electric point, a water supply and a drainage point. did the designer think of this when doing the last update, it might not seem like an example for teaching the future, but it is so important, in developing a station beyond just a platform for people to get on and of the train. Whilst I am on the subject, one item I added to this concept, was why restrict the platform at some stations to train users. Open it up, allow other users to use and develop the station beyond just a train station.

What lies in the future for construction is any ones guess, but so often the future is based upon ideas and the few who are willing to take a risk and develop the idea, concept, or product. But, and here is the number of variables that can affect that idea.

Unless you are blessed with an original idea, and have the time and money to develop the idea, all you can do is let the idea lie in waiting, you might even write about it, in the hope that some on will contact you and offer huge sums for the idea. Chances are thats not going to happen.

So where to next, my answer to this is, make a list. A list of areas you think might be interesting, not just now but for ever, keep adding to this list, materials, technology, buildings, details, design, Scifi, this list is not for the faint hearted, it must cover every thing, your dreams, your inner most thoughts.

And try to investigate each and every one, no holds bared,

Watch any, and all the YouTube videos that look even slightly interesting, I use Apple Notes to list them and make notes and followups, my list is often a Hasktag list, or it seems to end up as that.

Bricks, Timber, Cement, Lime, DPC, Visqueen, all get added and thought about, is there any innovation did they work as expected,

What did you think of your first visit to site, not just seeing a site behind a fence of from a viewing panel but up close, in the mud, the site organisation, the plant the tools, the hard hats, the cold in mid winter.

But does that mean the market place is a dead, no, there are people, companies, that have ideas, and the cash.

It starts with an idea, Think Tanks try to sell these ideas, some are good, some not so, but at least they can expand and research good ideas. I am looking at creating a list of suitable companies operating in my field of interest.

The future is a difficult subject, most will open up their personal crystal ball and give predictions, most will never happen, So I though where does the future begin, the answer it has alway been there, fuelled by ideas, people, events . So why not start this section with a few words on ideas.

In my earlier years, I was often asked to give a presentation on ideas that might be interesting, mostly as a finish to a conference, or discussion meeting, there was no thought given, I was just a wind up to the end of something the boss was more interested in.

But, I kept my ideas, and started to think I could do better. Perhaps some of my ideas and thoughts could lead somewhere.

How does an idea come, or how do you get ideas, why bother with ideas

Some people are inundated with thoughts, have lunch with them its often worth a pint and chip butty!

I often see something and my mind starts linking that thought with past thoughts experiences, people, feelings, its very hard sometimes to explain what the trigger was, a picture, a scene as I walk though the city, a comment overheard, an annoying smell, often some one smoking.

But I often find that unless I write it down it goes, and its so hard to bring it back.

Sometimes the ideas make no sense, and I end up with a lot of meaningless lists, sentences, concepts, then suddenly some of them comes to life or drives a new thought patten.

I often try linking these stray ideas, I add hash tags to the head like #Thought Then leave it alone allowing my unconscious mind to mull it over.

My paper daybooks are and probably always will be, my starting point, I have in the past just made notes, lots of them, sometimes with lines linking thoughts, a sketch, a little colour, but unless I remeber its there, so often they go unattended, until I happen to find it, whilst searching for another thought.

Then I was introduced to a system of note taking, that I now see as being used by Leonardo Da Vinci, the “Cornell method”, it relies on a simple concept, of partitioning a page a header, a working central area, a left column and a bottom panel.

The top page header is for dates, topic subject, the middle working area is for notes, and there are no rules here, just nake notes as always. The left hand column, is to remind me of follow up, I need to do something, and the bottom panel is for summary.

I have been using this for many months now and it feels natural. But the best part is, I seem to be able to scan the page, or pages, and load them into my knowledge base it was Obsidian , now its Apple Notes, its allows me to add hash tags, a header and often notes that will be linked by hashtags and Apples excellent search facilities, Obsidian I found just as good, but required a lot of work to move it forward, Apple Notes is so well intergrated into the Mac OS and therefore most of my writing, reading and Video watching, I make more notes and links without the need to spend time adding apps to Obsidian or using Markdown, so far its working, I am pleased, does it take more time, a little I must admit, because I can so easily add to Apple notes and add hash tags, but the end result is my ideas are now in a format I can easily find them with the use of Smart folders.

So, back to ideas, An old boss of mine, often asked me to have dinner with him, he liked, to talk openly on any subject, but he always wanted the obscure, no office gossip, but my wondering mind, what had I read recently, why, on what , and here I admit to being an early tech geek, I had a psion a folding hand held devise a keyboard on the bottom, and a mono grey and white screen on top. I am currently thinking of a iPad mini as a replacement!

The conversations were often long and fuelled at the end by wine, but he was looking for a way forward, for new products, he, like me had had to endure the end of meeting presentation, and liked the idea, the concept, but not the time or place.

Interestingly several of our conversation did become products, or at least improvements to existing products. One and I shall be for ever haunted by, is one idea being stopped by a legal manager, that is now a world wide product.

So my ideas and thoughts were interesting, perhaps I could write a few more notes.

This I did, but by this stage I was running my own practice, and more concerned with the next project, and getting paid!

Ideas are annoying, they can come at any point in time or place. By now I am the user of an iPhone with apps that make it easy to record, write notes on that I can look back on, often only a couple of spoken words, but enough to kick start the memory. I was back into idea mode, and now in an environment that needed ideas, research and discussion.

A university is the ideal place for thoughts, concepts ideas, it alway has been, some times with tragic results, but for me Academic papers solved so many problems. Up till now I wrote notes and sometimes passed those ideas to others.

But the university wanted more, write a paper, cite other work if applicable, publish and present your work. Can we take it further, is there a route for further research, will someone fund it. I use predomantly ResearchGate., I used to use Academia, but found handling two similar Academic Archives a pain. But academic papers require not my scrappy notes and an Apple Notes print out, or a presentation, it needs a formal layout. So I now lay out my more interesting ideas on a two page formatted word , or in my case Apple Pages document. with all my credentials and areas for funding possibilities.

Ok its not the route of my interest in ideas per-say, but a needed document if the idea is to have legs.

What constitutes an idea, its a question I am often asked, the answer is, I have no idea, my mind does not work like this, I have ideas on almost any subject, often the idea is a question, one I do not know the answer to, and it sparks of a series of searches, book reading, note making, and a small note in Apple Notes now my default Notes App.

But just sometimes, I follow one of these ideas and at some point, I find that path, the idea the concepts that I was not expecting, that leads to more research, and that ever lasting rabbit hole of asking, reading, talking and finally the light at the end of the tunnel.

So, if you have an idea, write it down, at this stage, no one else will read it, spelling mistakes bad grammer, just put is some where, that will alow it to be found.

I am almost never without my iPhone, one of the major benefits, and there are many for Apple Notes, is that is works on my macbook , my MacBook Air, and my iPhone. No matter where I am I can take notes take photos add the odd voice memo and link the web into my thoughts.

The photo above was one such thought, I had heard that the planets were alining yet again so I took a live picture on an app on my iPhone, will it start a new product or idea, I have no idea, but its interesting, in fact when I looked, I found several more similar photos, and notes in Obsidian, I had forgotten I made the note! I may well be Apple now but I just can’t throw out Obsidian, it works but I find Apple Note so well built into my day to day life. After this search, I used Apples import function to bring in most if not all my Obsidian notes.

But back to the initial note, I was lucky in having a boss that lived for ideas as much as I did, and still does, the internet is a wonderful place.

But stay away from doom mongers, those who pour scorn on your thoughts, they are dangerous people, and often steal ideas. find like minded soles who are like you.

Or write in Substack, or Medium, you never know!

But that idea will need to traverse any number of variables

Regulations

What ever the future is, it is certain that regulation, will dictate how buildings and their use will evolve, from the planning laws governing the style and relationship of building to each other health and safety rules, and most importantly the actual regulation governing the way we build, and what with.

Most if not all countries have their own regulation nearly all of them are related to each other in content and writing style. This make materials and construction techniques a global industry. It is certain that all regulations will change, to deal with unforced problems, shaping the future.

Materials

As the planet warms up, so will be need for both new, and so often old materials to be used to combat the heat, the conservation of food, water, and add to human, animal, and insect life with shade and storage.

Design

The needs climate change, and an ever increasing population it is certain our needs for new buildings to be designed for the weather changes, manufacturing, and storage. As the digital age continues to change the way we think, work play, and relax

Communicate

In 30 years, communication has gone from the written word on paper, taking many days in some instances, to an instantaneous digital note, comprising of voice, video, picture, text, and live conference.

Tracking and making sense of this instant need for a reply,

AI

Its obvious that the Digital world is going to change, from the internet, which is already under change with Musk’s new satalite connection, to AI and its continued intergration into the two main operating systems, Windows and Apple OS, and Linux if your that much into OS systems.

CAD never stands still, and AI’s intergration into both the general usage, plus as an attachment to the Graphical Programing abilities, is going the push Data to even higher levels of importance, with Digital Twin, and Digital systems, see my notes above. Adding so much data on use, and and performance, opening up the need for sofisticated algorithms to compair and act on the data being generated. Each building not restricted to its own internal data stream, but neigbouring building supplying data as allowed, plus specific services like the Met office, trains, bus and tram servises adding even more date.

We should now ask the question, Should a building have its own Knowledge store, and own AI, could smaller buildings share an AI and knowledge store and larger buildings having their own dedicated resource.

To test this out I had a long ongoing conversation with Pi.ai who provided valuable insights and perspectives on the topic of digital twins and Twin Systems,, and and their role in the built environment, which have been incorporated into this book,

Pi confirmed its ability to handle several houses keeing separate data in say individual Dropbox acounts, could be a viable solution for managing and storing the data generated by each individual residence. This approach would allow homeowners to maintain control over their own data while still benefiting from the shared insights and optimizations provided by a centralized AI system. Plus, if they aver sell, monitoring the value of the data as a proof of maintenance will almost certainly prove interesting.

By combining the advantages of both local and centralized data storage, each home owner and Pi, could strike a balance between privacy, security, and the benefits of collective intelligence. Plus, using a cloud-based service like Dropbox ensures that data is easily accessible, backed up, and can be seamlessly shared with authorized parties when needed.

What is the Future

I wish I knew that answer to this question, if I did know I certainly would not bradcast it I might act on it quietly perhaps buy a few shares, or join the company. What is certain, is there are many futures out there all running at the same time, so many paths to follow, so many ideas.

A more efective line of thought might be to listen to people who have seen a particular nich and acted on it.

People like:

Ryan Reynolds

Richard Branson

Jim Radcliffe

Noah Raford

Rory Sutherland

Talk to people, watch the markets, but above all, take time to think

Keep notes, use your prefered note taking App, explore your ideas,